EU enlargement: how the next phase could affect Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans

EU enlargement: how the next phase could affect Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans

The European Commission is preparing proposals on how the EU could manage future enlargement. A reported draft includes phased integration before membership and possible safeguards for new members, raising questions about rights, reforms and the Union’s decision-making.

The European Commission is expected to present a package on enlargement in early October. A draft reported on 29 September sets out possible measures for a larger EU, including gradual integration of candidate countries into EU programmes and safeguards that could apply after accession. The draft may change before publication, and the proposals would require agreement from EU member states.

The reported options include a temporary commitment by new members not to block some unanimous decisions, a mechanism that could suspend certain rights, and time-limited safeguards in areas such as free movement of workers and agriculture. The draft also calls for wider use of qualified-majority voting, including on sanctions, and earlier participation by candidates in EU programmes in defence, energy and transport. These ideas were described in a report on the Commission’s draft.

The debate comes as accession talks advance on several tracks. The Commission says enlargement remains a merit-based process: candidates must meet the membership criteria, complete negotiations and secure the agreement of every EU member state. Ukraine and Moldova opened their first negotiating cluster in June 2026 and began talks on external relations in July. Montenegro, the most advanced Western Balkan candidate in the treaty-drafting process, has opened all 33 negotiating chapters, while Albania’s talks have also moved forward. The Commission’s enlargement overview sets out the common stages and conditions.

A staged route towards membership

Some gradual integration already takes place before accession. The EU has used funding and reform plans to bring candidates closer to parts of the single market and EU programmes. In February 2026, for example, the Commission proposed opening negotiations to extend “Roam Like at Home” to the Western Balkans. The proposal describes this as an example of integration ahead of membership.

The new package could give that approach a broader framework. Candidates might gain access to selected EU programmes or policy areas as they meet agreed conditions, allowing administrations and businesses to prepare before full membership. For Ukraine and Moldova, early cooperation on energy, transport and defence could support closer links with the EU while negotiations continue. For Western Balkan states, which have taken part in EU reform and growth schemes for several years, the package could define more clearly how pre-accession benefits relate to progress on reforms.

The safeguards would address a different question: what rights and protections should apply once a country joins? The draft reportedly considers temporary limits and a process for suspending some rights if a new member breaches core commitments. If adopted, such provisions would affect the terms set out in future accession treaties. They could also prompt debate among candidate governments about whether membership would provide the same rights from the outset as those enjoyed by existing member states.

Different implications for each candidate

For Ukraine and Moldova, negotiations have only recently opened. The proposed changes could shape the expectations attached to their future accession treaties, while the immediate work remains focused on bringing domestic law and institutions into line with EU requirements. The Commission reports that the opening clusters for both countries cover fundamentals, including the rule of law, and external relations.

Montenegro is at a later stage. The Commission and member states have begun preparing its accession treaty, making the proposed safeguards particularly relevant to its eventual terms. Albania is also advancing through negotiations. Other Western Balkan candidates remain at different points in the process, so the timing and effect of any new framework would vary by country.

The reported draft does not alter the current accession criteria or admit any country to the EU. Its potential effect is on the structure of the route: how candidates receive benefits before membership, how reforms are monitored and what conditions may apply after accession. The final package will need to show how those arrangements fit with the EU treaties and the requirement for unanimous approval of new members.

For businesses, civil society organisations and public bodies working across the region, the next step is to follow the published proposals and country-specific accession reports. These will indicate which reforms remain priorities, where gradual integration may create new opportunities and how the terms of future membership are being discussed.

More Posts

Political advertising in the EU: what changed, and what organisations should check

Political advertising in the EU: what changed, and what organisations should check

Since 10 October 2025, EU-wide rules have required political advertisements to identify their sponsors and disclose key information about their funding and targeting. The first

From Brussels to Geneva: communicating across institutions and audiences

From Brussels to Geneva: communicating across institutions and audiences

Advocacy work often spans several political and public arenas. A message must retain its central facts while being adapted to the people who can act

The EU’s digital dependency problem — and the hard work of de-risking

The EU’s digital dependency problem — and the hard work of de-risking

The European Union’s push for “digital sovereignty” is often presented as an industrial ambition. It is also a contingency question: what would still function if

Send Us A Message

Subscribe Now

Don’t miss our future updates!

Get Subscribed Today!